Insights & Learnings
Exploring risk, perception and the power of public sentiment
Public sentiment is a powerful force that can determine the success or failure of infrastructure projects, policies and major developments. Understanding its drivers — and how to respond effectively — is critical for decision-makers navigating today’s complex social landscape.
This section brings together research, case studies and thought leadership on the factors shaping public perception and risk. From the hidden costs of public outrage to the recurring patterns of project opposition, our strategic insight papers examine key findings that help projects anticipate challenges, build trust and ultimately drive better outcomes.
The transition to clean energy isn’t just a technical challenge — it’s a social one.
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While most Australians support renewables, opposition to infrastructure is growing — and it’s hitting projects where it hurts: timelines, budgets and trust.
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This paper explores how community backlash is delaying, derailing and inflating the cost of energy projects — and what can be done about it..
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​Key findings:
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Outrage adds up — Community opposition can add 25–70% to project costs, from litigation and redesigns to delays and cancellations.
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Premature project announcements increase risk — Locking in scopes and budgets before meaningful engagement leads to costly backlash.
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Public sentiment is a key project variable — Yet many risk models still fail to adequately account for social risk, despite its proven impact on project delivery.
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Outrage is predictable — Risk patterns follow clear trends, meaning teams can forecast and mitigate opposition before it escalates.
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Predictive modelling makes social risk visible — Tools like POPM can quantify outrage risk in dollar terms, enabling smarter, earlier interventions.
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Proactive planning beats reactive spin — Understanding the drivers of outrage allows project teams to plan with, not just for, communities.​​
More insights coming soon...
Upcoming papers include:
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Losing It: The hidden cost of public outrage in infrastructure
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Repeat Offenders: The risk factors behind public outrage​​
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The Perfect Storm: Dissecting the anatomy of public outrage
Infrastructure projects don’t fail because of poor engineering — they fail due to poor public perception.
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Community opposition can make or break infrastructure projects, yet traditional risk assessments often overlook social risk — until it’s too late.
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This paper explores the impact of public outrage on infrastructure projects and how decision-makers can take a more proactive approach to mitigate risks before they escalate.
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​Key findings:
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Outrage is expensive — Australia has spent more than $20 billion on project cancellations and delays due to public opposition.
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Social risk = financial risk — Projects impacted by public opposition experience greater budget overruns, with as much as 35% of cost blowouts linked to managing opposition.
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Premature project confirmation increases costs and risk — Projects are locked into rigid scopes and budgets while communities feel blindsided, creating a trust deficit that must be overcome.
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Traditional risk models fail to capture social risk — Focused on technical and financial risks, these underestimate the costs and impacts of social risk.
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Outrage is predictable — Patterns of public outrage follow identifiable trends, meaning project teams can anticipate and mitigate backlash before it escalates.
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Social risk is measurable — New methodologies, like POPM, can better predict and quantify social risk, allowing direct comparison for fully integrated risk analysis.
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Proactive engagement is a cost-saver — Once public opposition gains traction, it becomes exponentially harder to reverse, with crisis management significantly more expensive than early structured dialogue.​​
More insights coming soon...
Upcoming papers include:
​5
-
Losing It: The hidden cost of public outrage in infrastructure
-
Repeat Offenders: The risk factors behind public outrage​​
-
The Perfect Storm: Dissecting the anatomy of public outrage
Let’s connect
We’d love to your views on our research and your experiences in the field. What topics do you want to see us address next?
Reach out today for a chat or to learn how POPM can help with early identification and management of public outrage, ensuring your project’s success.